CFA Pass Probability Calculator
The formula
What the cfa odds tells you
A two-signal model for the charter exams: how much curriculum you actually know and how the clocks feel under exam pressure.
Calculation: Logistic on coverage+mock; ~70 % line, 50-ish historical rates. Enter your inputs and every substitution is shown below the result.
Reading the result
Coverage without timed practice fails the last mile; mock accuracy without coverage fails the first.
Rules of thumb: Level I ~35–45 %; Level III ~45–55 % recently
Limitations and best practice
The Ethics adjustment: borderline candidates pass/fail on it; the bootstrap rule is real.
This calculator gives an estimate based on standard formulas; it is not professional financial, medical, legal or engineering advice. Verify anything you plan to act on with a qualified professional and your own records.
Frequently asked questions
Is 70 % raw safe?
Minimum gap?
Source & methodology
CFA Institute pass-history data.
CFA Pass Probability: the number, the method and the caveats
Every bet is a price, and this page computes whether the price is fair. There are plenty of pages about CFA Pass Probability; almost none of them show the working. This one does: the formula, every input, a fully computed example, and a sensitivity analysis calculated live from this engine’s own defaults.
People rarely disagree about arithmetic; they disagree about assumptions that were never written down. Printing the substitution and the sensitivity ranking removes that category of disagreement for CFA Pass Probability.
Like most useful measures, CFA Pass Probability is a summary, and summaries hide as much as they reveal. The companion outputs and the input table are here to reopen what the headline compressed.
Every figure in the prose is generated by the engine rather than written beside it — the worked example resolves to pass probability = 54.2% on the default inputs, and the sensitivity section ranks the inputs that move the result — Mock-exam % first, at ≈45.4 % of the headline for a ten-percent error either way in that input. Work down the page and by the end you could re-derive the result in a spreadsheet from memory.
The CFA Pass Probability formula, explained
Here is the complete model this tool runs — Logistic on coverage+mock; ~70 % line, 50-ish historical rates — with each input explained below. If a competitor’s page gives you a different answer from the same inputs, this is the text that settles which of you is right.
Curriculum coverage % (example value 61) is a plain measured quantity — the unit shown in the label is the unit the formula expects. Enter it exactly as your document states it — quoted annual, monthly and effective rates are three different numbers.
Mock-exam % (example value 62) is a measured number in the unit named by the label; the formula does not convert for you. Rates are the most mis-transcribed input on any page like this; copy it from the document rather than retyping from memory.
The default CFA Pass Probability calculation, written out in full
The tool prints its own working; this is the same arithmetic on the example values, reproduced so you can follow it by hand. Starting figures: Curriculum coverage %, Mock-exam %. The endpoint of that chain is 54.2% of pass probability, sitting in the “The CFA line has a folk name — the “70 % rule” — and this profile (61 % covered, 62 % mock) reads 54 % against historical Levels I–III rates of 35–55 %” band.
- Coverage term (61−65)/8
- Mock term (62−58)/6
- Logistic → 54 %
Historical level rate — 45.0%. Compare it against the main result of 54.2% before drawing conclusions.
Coverage gap to 80 — 19. Read next to the headline, this is the figure that shows the shape of the trade-off.
Ethics adjustment — bootstrap on Ethics can flip borderline. Read next to the headline, this is the figure that shows the shape of the trade-off.
Study clock — 300+ hrs is the median success profile. This is the number experienced users quote when the headline alone would mislead.
Re-running with your own figures is instant; re-running by hand once is the best way to know the tool is telling you the truth.
Scenario table: CFA Pass Probability at ±10 % and ±20 % of the key input
Single-point answers invite false confidence, so the same engine was run across a band around the input that matters most here. Each row is a full recalculation of CFA Pass Probability, not an interpolation.
| Mock-exam % setting | Pass probability |
|---|---|
| 80 % of the example value | 13.0% |
| 90 % of the example value | 29.6% |
| example inputs | 54.2% |
| 110 % of the example value | 76.9% |
| 120 % of the example value | 90.3% |
The corridor runs from 13.0% to 90.3% across that band — which is the range worth planning inside rather than the single 54.2% point estimate. Reproduce it in the form above by editing Mock-exam % alone; the substitution steps will follow your figures exactly.
What actually moves your CFA Pass Probability
Nobody should have to guess which input matters. The engine was re-run once per field below — ten percent up, ten percent down, everything else frozen — and the results ranked by how far they moved the pass probability. It is the fastest honest answer to “what matters most in CFA Pass Probability?” — and it is specific to these defaults, because sensitivity moves with the starting point.
- Mock-exam %: ten percent up gives 76.9%, ten percent down gives 29.6% — ≈45.4 % of the pass probability either way
- Curriculum coverage % +10 % → CFA Pass Probability = 71.7% · −10 % → 35.5% (the pass probability shifts ≈34.4 %)
Mock-exam % is the dominant lever here: ten percent either way moves the result by about 45.4 %, from 29.6% to 76.9%. That is where a careless figure does the most damage, so check it against a source, and treat Curriculum coverage % as the second priority (≈34.4 % per ten percent). The rest of the inputs earn only a rounding-error of attention, and that asymmetry is the practical payoff of measuring rather than asserting.
Is your CFA Pass Probability good — reading the result bands
Nobody acts on a bare figure — they act on a figure with a comparison attached. On the example inputs the band reads “The CFA line has a folk name — the “70 % rule” — and this profile (61 % covered, 62 % mock) reads 54 % against historical Levels I–III rates of 35–55 %”; your own figures place you on a different rung of the same ladder. Before treating the band as fact, note its width: ten percent either way on Mock-exam % already spans 29.6% to 76.9%. The practical reading rules: ask what would have to change to move you one band. If the answer is “a small, plausible input difference”, the band itself is not the finding — the uncertainty is.
In Education & Academics, CFA Pass Probability is one instrument in an orchestra: on its own it is a number, next to Historical level rate and Coverage gap to 80 it becomes a diagnosis. The tools linked above exist so the headline never has to carry that weight alone.
How people get CFA Pass Probability wrong
The Ethics adjustment: borderline candidates pass/fail on it; the bootstrap rule is real. This calculator gives an estimate based on standard formulas; it is not professional financial, medical, legal or engineering advice. Verify anything you plan to act on with a qualified professional and your own records.
Confusing a large number with an important one. CFA Pass Probability can be dominated by one input whose absolute value looks unimpressive, which is why this page ranks influence separately from magnitude.
Attention is also misallocated between fields. Having measured this engine, we can say where it belongs: Mock-exam % first, everything else second.
The subtlest error is answering the wrong question precisely. Confirm that pass probability is actually the quantity your decision needs — the arithmetic is flawless either way, which is what makes the mistake invisible.
Before you trust your CFA Pass Probability: a short checklist
- Verify each input against its original source document, not memory.
- Check that every field the formula needs actually arrived from a document, not from recollection.
- Check Mock-exam % before anything else: it is the measured dominant input, ≈45.4 % of CFA Pass Probability per ten percent.
- Record the date and the inputs alongside the number so future-you knows what was assumed.
- Note the date and the inputs beside the number so the figure can be audited later.
- Run the ±10 % stress on the top two levers and check that your conclusion survives both.
A routine for decision-grade CFA Pass Probability
Using a calculator well sounds trivial, but the difference between a decision-grade figure and a throwaway one lives entirely in the routine. The routine for CFA Pass Probability takes a minute to learn and applies to every input above.
Step 1 — gather before you type. CFA Pass Probability depends on curriculum coverage %, mock-exam %. Collect them from a source document — a statement, a report, an invoice, a log — rather than from memory, because recalled inputs are the single largest cause of wrong results. When two sources disagree, it is almost never the arithmetic that differs.
Step 2 — baseline before exploration. Get one defensible Pass probability on screen before you start nudging numbers. Without a baseline, every variation looks interesting and none of them means anything. If the answer changes your behaviour, it deserves a second run with different assumptions.
Step 3 — play with the inputs on purpose. Ten percent up, ten percent down, one field at a time. Within a few minutes you will know this calculation better than most people who quote its results. Note the assumption you are least sure about; that is where the real risk lives.
Step 4 — run the scenario trio. Expected, pessimistic, optimistic. The gap between pessimistic and expected is the number to plan against; the optimistic result is useful only as a ceiling. The test of a good estimate is not that it feels right but that it changes what you do.
Step 5 — record the context, not just the number. Note today’s date and the inputs alongside the 54.2% output. Six months from now the context is what turns this figure into a trend. A figure with a date beside it becomes evidence; without one it stays an anecdote.
Where CFA Pass Probability matters in practice
Education & Academics arguments end at arithmetic or they do not end. CFA Pass Probability is the arithmetic: 54.2% on the example inputs, reproducible by anyone who types the same numbers. One decimal place more than your data supports is one decimal place of fiction.
Used properly this is a five-minute filter that saves weeks. Compute CFA Pass Probability, reject what fails, and only then bring in the expensive analysis for the survivors. The point of transparency is that a reader can disagree with a specific line rather than with you.
Treat CFA Pass Probability like a smoke alarm rather than a painting — its value is in being tested periodically, not in being admired once. A calculation you cannot explain to somebody else is a calculation you cannot defend.
CFA Pass Probability — frequently asked questions
What affects CFA Pass Probability the most?
CFA Pass Probability is driven above all by Mock-exam %. Perturbing only that field by ten percent either way produced 76.9% against the 54.2% baseline — a ≈45.4 % response, while Curriculum coverage % manages ≈34.4 %.
Which matters more: curriculum coverage % or mock-exam %?
For CFA Pass Probability, Mock-exam % wins the head-to-head (≈45.4 % against ≈34.4 % per ten-percent change). Knowing which input dominates is the difference between careful work and merely slow work.
What is a typical CFA Pass Probability?
On the worked example above CFA Pass Probability comes out at 54.2%. Treat that as one point on a distribution rather than a norm: the bands, the companion outputs and the sensitivity ranking tell you how wide the plausible range really is.
How do I calculate CFA Pass Probability by hand?
Use the stated model — Logistic on coverage+mock; ~70 % line, 50-ish historical rates — and substitute in the order the tool prints (it starts from Coverage term (61−65)/8). On the example inputs the hand route lands on 54.2%, exactly what the calculator shows. A spreadsheet reproduces it in two or three cells; doing it once by hand is what makes the automated answer trustworthy.
What happens to CFA Pass Probability if mock-exam % changes by 10 %?
On these inputs a ±10 % change in mock-exam % takes CFA Pass Probability to 76.9% against the 54.2% example — around 45.4 % of the headline. The same test on every other field is in the sensitivity section.
Is the CFA Pass Probability result of 54.2% good or bad?
Neither, on its own — the label “The CFA line has a folk name — the “70 % rule” — and this profile (61 % covered, 62 % mock) reads 54 % against historical Levels I–III rates of 35–55 %” is the band this figure falls in for the example inputs, and your own inputs will place you elsewhere on the same ladder. Judge the number against your history and your alternatives, and remember that a ten-percent error in Mock-exam % alone moves it by ≈45.4 %.
How often should I check CFA Pass Probability?
Whenever an input changes by more than a few percent, and otherwise on the rhythm of your decisions — before a purchase, a review, a renewal. CFA Pass Probability is a snapshot, not a subscription; stale snapshots are the most common silent error in Education & Academics planning.
Can CFA Pass Probability be negative or empty?
Yes, and that is informative rather than broken: a negative CFA Pass Probability usually means the inputs encode an outflow or a shortfall, and the verdict band above labels exactly that situation instead of hiding it.
Is 70 % raw safe?
The rule of thumb yes; equating bands it, the 70 % line is folk but directionally correct.
Minimum gap?
Six months between attempts under current registration.
Can this tool see the numbers I type?
It cannot. There is no submission step: the calculation happens in your browser and the result disappears when you close the page. Treat the fields above as a scratchpad rather than a form.
Key terms on this page
- Historical level rate
- 45.0% for the CFA Pass Probability worked case; it sits next to the main result because it carries context the headline leaves out.
- Coverage gap to 80
- 19 on the example inputs — a companion figure printed beside the headline of CFA Pass Probability so that no result is read in isolation.
- Ethics adjustment
- bootstrap on Ethics can flip borderline on the example inputs — a companion figure printed beside the headline of CFA Pass Probability so that no result is read in isolation.
- Pass probability
- The primary output of this tool: 54.2% for the default inputs, computed exactly from Logistic on coverage+mock; ~70 % line, 50-ish historical rates.
- Worked example
- The step-by-step substitution printed above, so the arithmetic can be re-derived by hand or in a spreadsheet.
- Verdict band
- The plain-language label — here “The CFA line has a folk name — the “70 % rule” — and this profile (61 % covered, 62 % mock) reads 54 % against historical Levels I–III rates of 35–55 %” — mapping the computed figure onto experience-based ranges for Education & Academics.
- Sensitivity (±10 %)
- How far the CFA Pass Probability moves when a single input is nudged ten percent either way; the ranked list on this page is computed live from this engine.
Method, sources and what this tool cannot tell you
The model is published arithmetic implemented exactly as written: Logistic on coverage+mock; ~70 % line, 50-ish historical rates. Source of record: CFA Institute pass-history data. Specialist software layers extra coefficients on top of the same algebra; none are hidden here, and that transparency is what makes a disagreement traceable to a specific input instead of a black box.
Nothing here replaces a qualified professional, and nothing here is approximate either — the arithmetic is exact, and the honesty is in the inputs you supply. Nothing is smoothed, weighted or adjusted behind the scenes; where judgement enters, this page says so and names the input responsible.
Turning this CFA Pass Probability into a decision
Compare the computed edge against the actual price being offered; a positive theoretical edge still loses to bad odds.
Whoever you are (players deciding whether a wager is mathematically worth taking), the next step is the same: replace the example inputs with your own, note the date, and re-run whenever a figure moves. In Education & Academics, a dated figure is a trend, and an undated one is a rumour.